The end of the US de minimis exemption has reshaped air cargo more sharply than any other mode. After the $800 duty-free threshold was eliminated for China and Hong Kong origin goods in May 2025 — and then for all countries later in 2025 — the small-parcel air volume that fed direct-to-consumer e-commerce has dropped steeply. For exporters who still move goods by air, the lane economics and capacity picture look very different in 2026.

The China–US Volume Drop

China–US e-commerce air shipments fell by as much as half after the de minimis exemption was eliminated, according to freight-market reporting. The model that drove years of air-cargo growth — millions of individually addressed low-value parcels flown direct to US consumers — no longer works once each parcel faces formal entry and full duties. Platforms and sellers have responded by consolidating volume, shifting to bulk shipments into US warehouses, and redirecting attention to other markets.

The Europe Pivot

One clear consequence: capacity and commercial focus have shifted toward Europe, where some Chinese e-commerce platforms redirected effort and where import values rose materially. For air-cargo lanes, that has meant relatively firmer demand on China/Asia-to-Europe routes even as the China–US e-commerce lane contracted. Exporters targeting European consumers have, in effect, inherited some of the capacity and network attention that used to serve the US direct-to-consumer flow.

The Fuel and Conflict Overlay

Air cargo hasn't escaped the Middle East situation either. Elevated fuel prices, gradual capacity shifts, and flights moving to lanes with changed demand have kept air rates above pre-crisis levels through 2026, even as many lanes passed their peak. By early May, the global air-freight benchmark sat well above its level before the conflict, with China–US air rates around $5.48/kg — down somewhat from late-February highs but still elevated — and Asia–Europe lanes holding 50%+ above pre-crisis marks before plateauing. The takeaway: air pricing in 2026 carries a persistent premium that budgets need to absorb.

What This Means for Exporters

  • Re-examine whether air still pays. For low-value goods that previously flew under de minimis, the duty and formal-entry cost may now outweigh the speed benefit. Re-run the landed-cost math per product rather than assuming the old playbook holds.
  • Consolidate and pre-clear. Bulk shipment into an overseas or bonded warehouse, with domestic last-mile fulfillment, is increasingly the more economical structure for e-commerce volume that used to fly parcel-by-parcel.
  • Match mode to the lane. With Europe-bound air demand firmer and US e-commerce air contracted, the right mode and routing now depend heavily on destination. A blanket air strategy leaves money on the table.
  • Get classification and entry right. Formal entry means HS classification, valuation, and documentation now carry real duty consequences on shipments that used to clear informally. Errors here are no longer cheap.

How Zhongshen Can Help

We help exporters re-model landed cost across air, ocean, and warehouse-fulfillment options, structure consolidated shipments and customs entries correctly, and route e-commerce volume to the markets and modes where the economics now work. Contact our logistics desk to review your air-cargo and fulfillment strategy for the post-de-minimis environment.