U.S. Customs and Border Protection states that China-origin shipments lost duty-free de minimis treatment from 2 May 2025 and that worldwide treatment was suspended from 29 August 2025, subject to the guidance and exceptions described by CBP. [1] [2]
IATA’s January 2026 market analysis reports global air-cargo demand and capacity indicators, which are useful context but do not prove a particular China–US volume or “collapse”. [3]
Operational consequence
Low-value shipments should be reviewed for entry method, duties, data quality, origin, classification and payment before booking. Sellers comparing air freight with ocean or overseas stock should use actual landed cost and service requirements rather than assume a universal mode shift.