After a turbulent fourth quarter of 2025 marked by capacity constraints and rate spikes, Asia–Europe container freight rates have stabilised in early 2026. Spot rates on the Shanghai–North Europe route settled at approximately $3,200–$3,600 per FEU in the first week of January, down from the Q4 2025 peak of $4,800 per FEU.
What Changed
The stabilisation is attributed to several factors:
- Returned capacity — Carriers redeployed vessels from other trade lanes to the Asia–Europe route after the peak holiday season
- Improved schedule reliability — On-time performance improved to 52% in December 2025, up from 39% in October
- Moderating demand — Pre-Lunar New Year front-loading eased after the holiday, reducing booking pressure
Outlook for Q1 2026
Carriers signal that blank sailing programmes for the first quarter are significantly reduced compared with the same period last year, suggesting confidence in sustained demand. Shippers should still plan for:
- Potential rate increases in late February as post-holiday production ramps up
- Space remaining tight for oversized cargo and hazardous goods
- Equipment availability (particularly 40-foot high-cube containers) is generally good across Chinese export ports
Our logistics desk provides weekly rate updates and space availability reports to clients with active shipments. Contact us to be added to our market intelligence distribution list.