For the first time in modern shipping history, both of the Middle East's major maritime corridors are compromised at the same time. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since late February 2026, and Houthi attacks resumed in the Red Sea on February 28, 2026, pushing carriers off the Suez route once again. The result is a routing picture that exporters shipping to Europe and the US East Coast need to plan around for the rest of 2026 — not treat as a passing disruption.

What's Actually Happening on the Water

As of late May 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal. Reporting describes it as "technically open, but not operating" — some vessels are crossing, but volumes are a small fraction of normal, held down by war-risk insurance costs and security risk. On one recent day tracked by IMF PortWatch, transit ran at roughly 4% of pre-crisis volume.

With the Red Sea also being avoided by most mainline carriers, the major lines — Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Evergreen and others — have rerouted Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast services around the Cape of Good Hope. That detour adds roughly 10 to 14 days of transit and several thousand nautical miles per voyage, absorbing vessel capacity across the fleet.

The Effect on Rates and Surcharges

The capacity absorbed by longer routings, combined with elevated bunker-fuel costs, has pushed spot rates up and added a layer of surcharges. By late May, May general rate increases had lifted Asia–North Europe spot rates to around $2,900/FEU, with Asia–Mediterranean prices jumping about 20% in a week to nearly $4,400/FEU, according to Freightos and Drewry index data. Carriers have also layered on war-risk and emergency bunker surcharges on Gulf-linked lanes.

Two forces are pulling rates in the same direction right now: the routing disruption, and an unusually early start to peak season — European importers are frontloading orders to finish moving goods before Golden Week in early October, since the longer Cape transit means anything shipped after mid-October risks missing the window. Reports of shippers frontloading ahead of new bunker surcharges taking effect in July are reinforcing the trend.

Knock-On Congestion at Bypass Ports

Cargo that can't move through the Gulf has to go somewhere, and transshipment hubs along the Cape route and across Asia are feeling it. Berth and dwell-time pressure has been reported at hubs including Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, Colombo, Nhava Sheva and Mundra, while South African ports handle heavy Cape-routing traffic. On the transpacific, congestion has appeared at ports such as Qingdao, with multi-day vessel waits. Congestion compounds the headline transit penalty — a delay at a relay port stacks on top of the longer sea leg.

What Exporters Should Do

  • Rebuild your lead-time assumptions. For Europe and US East Coast lanes, build in the 10–14 day Cape penalty plus a buffer for port congestion, and communicate revised ETAs to buyers before they ask.
  • Book earlier than instinct says. With peak season starting early and capacity tight, the usual booking lead times are no longer safe. Space, not just price, is the binding constraint on hot lanes.
  • Watch the contract-vs-spot mix. In a volatile, surcharge-heavy market, a blend of contracted baseline space with selective spot bookings protects both cost and availability. Cost predictability matters as much as headline rate right now.
  • Check Incoterms exposure. Who bears the surcharge and the delay risk depends on your terms. A CIF seller carrying freight to destination is exposed very differently from an FOB seller — worth a deliberate look before signing new orders.

How Zhongshen Can Help

Our logistics desk books across multiple carriers and routings, monitors the corridor situation daily, and structures shipments to protect your delivery commitments under the current conditions. If you ship to Europe or the US East Coast, contact us for a route-and-timing review so the Cape detour and early peak season don't catch your orders short.