The US–China tariff truce is still holding in mid-2026, but "holding" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The current arrangement traces back to the October 2025 Busan meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, which extended a lowered tariff framework, and was reinforced by a May 2026 summit in Beijing. For exporters, the practical takeaway is that the truce buys planning room through late 2026 — but it is annual, conditional, and surrounded by unresolved disputes. Here is where things actually stand.

What the Truce Currently Covers

Under the framework reaffirmed in late 2025, the US suspended its heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10, 2026, keeping a 10% reciprocal rate in effect during the suspension, and cut the fentanyl-related tariff from 20% to 10%. Certain Section 301 tariff exclusions were extended to the same November 2026 date. On China's side, commitments included large agricultural purchases (soybeans, sorghum, hardwood logs), suspension of various retaliatory countermeasures, and a postponement of proposed rare-earth export controls.

Crucially, both sides confirmed the provisions are to be renegotiated annually — so this is a rolling ceasefire, not a settlement.

The May 2026 Wrinkle: Section 301 Restoration

A complicating development arrived earlier this year. After the US Supreme Court struck down the emergency (IEEPA-based) reciprocal tariffs in late February 2026, the administration enacted 10% across-the-board tariffs in late February as a 150-day bridge under a different legal authority. The two countries have since been working through how the now-voided tariffs are restored via the Section 301 investigations, which are due to conclude this summer.

In a statement on May 20, 2026, China signaled it would accept some restoration of US tariffs to the level agreed in Kuala Lumpur talks last October, while pressing that rates not exceed that agreed level, and said it would continue negotiating to extend the truce. The reading from both capitals is cautious stabilization — but with the truce extension itself not yet locked in.

What Remains Unresolved

The truce papers over rather than settles the hard issues. Semiconductors, rare earths, and technology export controls remain active flashpoints, and each side retains leverage that could reignite friction. Total effective tariff rates on many Chinese goods remain high once the various layers — reciprocal, fentanyl, Section 301, and product-specific Section 232 duties on items like steel and aluminum — are stacked. The truce lowers the temperature; it does not remove the structural tariff burden built up since 2018.

Planning Around an Annual, Conditional Truce

  • Treat November 10, 2026 as a live boundary. The suspension has a date. Orders and contracts that extend past it should account for the possibility that terms change at the annual renegotiation.
  • Don't model on the headline rate alone. The duty that actually lands depends on stacked layers specific to your HS code. Calculate the all-in rate per product, not a single "China tariff" figure.
  • Build flexibility into long contracts. Given the rolling nature of the truce, change-in-law and price-adjustment clauses are worth having in agreements that straddle a renegotiation date.
  • Watch the summer Section 301 conclusion. The outcome will shape the tariff baseline into 2027; it is the next scheduled inflection point to plan around.

How Zhongshen Can Help

We track the tariff framework as it evolves, calculate stacked-duty exposure by HS code so you can quote accurately, and help structure contracts to absorb the annual-renegotiation risk. If you ship to the US, contact our trade desk for a current exposure review against the truce timeline.